The Mafia Discussion Thread

[D-Day]

Losing a townie also means gaining knowledge, though, and knowledge is leverage for the town.

Eh, that's true. It still seems to be a fairly even-sided debate though, I don't know why everyone piles on the moment someone even suggests No Lynch ... well besides the fact that it's a bloodthirsty mob that wants a disembodied head, any head.

[Plubby]

95% of killing a townie is better than 100% of losing no townies in the day period?

Yes. It is the difference between "Playing to win" and "Playing not to lose". You don't WIN by no lynching, you just take longer to lose.

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Assume that there is a cop (the existance of the cop is the only way to avoid random lynching if you are stalemated at lynching someone on posting behaviour)

You no lynch at 20 players (let's assume 1 scum left in 20 players, just to have our 5/95% math match up)

The mafia whacks a guy (obv).

The cop now has a 1 in 18 of finding that scummie. The math is only slightly more in favour of finding him than the town was of lynching him.

So basically, chances are very high that if you no lynch you are going to be in exactly the same place you were before, just with less people. This improves the maths in your favour, which makes it better for when you eventually random lynch.

What random lynching does is accelerate the town towards the point where the lynching math begins to favour them. There is also the random probability of times where you will get the scummie on accident. Also factor in the lies that become exposed when people are lynched/whacked and were involved in the stalemated discussions.

At the end of the day, Random lynching just gets to these points in the game (exposing lies, or the mathematically favourable random lynch) faster than no-lynching does.

Edited January 14, 2009 by Plubby

[D-Day]

Alright, understood now, thanks for explaining ... this (or something like it) should really go into the Mafia Resource Thread at some point.

[Sousa]

It still seems to be a fairly even-sided debate though

It's really not.

Essentially, it comes down to this.

What is more valuable to the town: one living town player or one dead scum player?

In any given game of Mafia, 25%-33% of the game is scum. Let's use Phoenix Wright Mafia as an example. That game had 22 roles: 15 town, 5 Mafia, 2 indy (one SK, one... uh... ghost... ). The town's goal is to eliminate all threats--and to do so at such a pace that they themselves are never overwhelmed.

What this means is that scum players are a scarcity, while town players are in the majority. In economic terms, scarcity indicates value. So is it better to look for something valuable and rare while risking losing something common and less valuable while increasing your chances of finding a valuable thing later... or is it better to cling to what valuables you have?

The risk in lynching every day, of course, is that a valuable town player with a good power role goes down. However, this emphasizes the value in being a strong town asset whenever possible. It's why people harp on players that don't participate. If you behave suspiciously and the town lynches you over it, you are in part to blame. You've cost the town an asset, and you've caused them to lynch you thinking they'd found a lead. That's why I said in Phoenix Wright Mafia that much of the onus of Pleather's lynch was on Pleather himself. He played badly, he acted suspiciously, and when the chips were down, he began phoning it in. The result was that the town lost its doctor. And that was, in large part, Pleather's fault.

Kinda rambling now, but there you go. Economically, a No Lynch is always a bad idea. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Plubby]

Sousa stated there what I was implying - the value of a townie over the chance of finding a scum. We're all over this.

Edited January 14, 2009 by Plubby

[SeanDMan]

Vote: No Lynch.

[Matt]

That said, you should always no lynch day 1 (and sometimes day 2) in 5 man dethy...

[oldskool]

When has a voting pattern centering around a Day One lynch choice ever paid off?

The way we do things, no lynch day 1 is the best alternative. Our first lynch is always a "Who bothers me the most" bandwagon, and those don't give any information regarding vote patterns.

[Pesci]

In Whose Mafia Is It Anyway for one. But yeah you're right, shiny abilities FTW!

[Matt]

I still think that was utterly retarded as I always vote jump.

[Plubby]

oldskool: It doesn't matter because Be's gone now, but thug had a tell where he would always try to wagon Be "Because he's Be" when he was mafia - and only when he was mafia(not necessarily every time he was mafia, but every time I was in a game where he was mafia, he did it).

EDIT: Therefore any day 1 voting pattern where thug would vote for Be for that reason was a safe bet.

Edited January 14, 2009 by Plubby

[C-MIL]

I remember one game where they were both mafia and fake-fought. Has that tactic ever actually worked?

[Sousa]

It very nearly worked in Phoenix Wright Mafia until Be ran out of roleclaim.

[Guest Mr. Potato Head]

It more or less worked for me and LCS in the first Tradmaf.

[Mr Evil Guy]

There needs to be a new mafia around here. I'm bored.

[DFF]

Okay, I've got a question regarding night phase write-ups.

Do people prefer lengthy, descriptive write-ups which allow people to gather clues on roles/actions, or do you prefer the minimalistic approach (ie, just reporting if anyone was killed and, if so, who they were) and leave the investigating to investigators, etc?

[Smokey B]

Okay, I've got a question regarding night phase write-ups.

Do people prefer lengthy, descriptive write-ups which allow people to gather clues on roles/actions, or do you prefer the minimalistic approach (ie, just reporting if anyone was killed and, if so, who they were) and leave the investigating to investigators, etc?

I think it's a mix of box. The write-up doesn't need to be entirely too lengthy, but it at least needs to be recognizable(ex: Jam's write-ups in WWE Mafia aren't even noticed by some people).

[Pesci]

If you can write lengthy updates at a good pace, great. If not, I'd rather people just told us who's dead and any signs that lead us to identifying the role that's doing the killing if they're into that kinda thing.

[Ruki]

Okay, I've got a question regarding night phase write-ups.

Do people prefer lengthy, descriptive write-ups which allow people to gather clues on roles/actions, or do you prefer the minimalistic approach (ie, just reporting if anyone was killed and, if so, who they were) and leave the investigating to investigators, etc?

I think it's a mix of box. The write-up doesn't need to be entirely too lengthy, but it at least needs to be recognizable(ex: Jam's write-ups in WWE Mafia aren't even noticed by some people).

That's how I missed that I was modkilled.

[Jam]

Yea I need to start bolding more.

I actually prefer slightly longer to what I do, but doing them like that will keep the game going and stops me giving something obvious away