2024-2025 NBA season

[gunnar hendershow]

They're definitely not bringing OG back and have mortgaged the entirety of the future on the Villanova Wildcats.

But wait there's more!

So basically Houston wants Durant and this is how they're going to get him. With the picks Phoenix originally gave go for him.

[Your Mom]

I like to think I at least follow along with the NBA even though I don't watch a lot of it but that seems like a ton of picks for a name I don't even recognize. I'm probably way off base but that is like a crazy amount of picks for one person

[Pooker]

Bridges is a good, young player with tons of potential. He was on the top of my list for players I wanted the Jazz to go after this off season. Fivd first round picks is a bit steep, but he could very well be worth it for New York.

Also, can we get a mod to move the last few posts to a new season thread?

[The Buscher]

It’s a steep price but the goal of a trade like this is to establish the team’s floor being a perennial contender.  If that happens those draft picks will be in the 20s and not of all that much consequence.  Leon Rose hasn’t given me any reason yet to not trust him.

Happy to get Bridges aboard.  It’s wild to see Villanova taking over a franchise.

[Your Mom]

9 hours ago, Pooker said:

Bridges is a good, young player with tons of potential. He was on the top of my list for players I wanted the Jazz to go after this off season. Fivd first round picks is a bit steep, but he could very well be worth it for New York.

Also, can we get a mod to move the last few posts to a new season thread?

I had never done that before and I think I probably made it more complicated than it needed to be but I did it!  I thought the trade was a good starting point but if you want me to go back further I think I know how now

[Malenko]

I like to check likely outcomes based on similar situations beforehand. My first impact was, wow that's way too much. My first impact however is based on 30+ years of basketball in which apart from the last half dozen years, you didn't see these deals such as this one, or Harden's, Anthony Davis or the mighty trade that took Paul George to the Clippers. the top players in the league were involved in trades with 1 or 2 firsts, plus 1 or 2 good players and any number of releasables. Examples of recent versions of the latter - just to show how recent this trend is (instead of showing trades from the 80s) could be Shaq, Garnett, Iverson or Chris Paul.

My brain sees 5 1st round picks and mistakenly reads 5 future NBA starters. Meanwhile, my brain sees 2 1st picks, 2 rotation players and 2 bench warmers, and it doesn't read 5 1st round picks (and therefore 5 future starters), while they may very well be the same thing.

As an exercise, I moved back to 2015, just so it's easier to analyze what players may came out of the drafts of 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021 which is about the same situation as the current trade where you get 2 2025's, 2027, 2029 and 2031.

Obviously when discussing trades with a lot of future picks the main issue is where will the team be in those seasons, because your 5th pick won't be the same as the 25th.

And after rechecking those drafts I mentioned the truth is, This has the potential to be an excellent deal for the Knicks. The picks in the exact positions the Knicks would be getting at their current level, would get them Jarell Martin, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Tyler Lydon, Anžejs Pasečņiks, Nassir Little and Quentin Grimes. And I can live with that, if I'm the Knicks.

The problem with these kind of trades is, if things don't go your way, and you kinda suck, and not only do you suck, but all your picks are granting the Nets a bunch of decent players (trade assets) for 7 years. Maybe you don't suck but they don't go great and you're a play-in team that haul may become (in the exact same years) Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier and Alperen Sengun. And then it starts looking like you gave too much. There's a big risk in any of these trades. In the 2000's trades I mentioned some at least granted them the 1 ring they wanted, some did not.

[gunnar hendershow]

The purpose of this trade is because NY doesn't believe they can stop Boston (and they can't). They have to get much better defensive effort on the wing, and shut down the Celtics stars as Miami managed to do in 2023. But by doing this they're going to potentially open themselves up to being weaker in the paint and create a situation where they get eliminated when Ancient Al Horford puts up 25/10 in a game.

Probably worth the risk when your title window is running directly against Boston's, but to the point above these massive trades can backfire spectacularly and when they do you're in the wilderness for years.

[Chris2K]

I think that 1st round picks are only as valuable as the team who owns them. If that team have terrible decision-making skills, poor scouting evaluation or simply haven't done their due diligence on the available talent (particularly international players), then those picks are just as likely to be busts as they are starters. See "the Minnesota Timberwolves from 1992-2018" for more details on that.

On the flip side, if the team knows how to make the best out of the late-first round picks they likely get from trading a top star to an already strong team, then they can find the potential stars that other teams have ignored. Or, like the Nuggets, you can just get lucky and stumble on a 2 time MVP in the second round.

 

[Malenko]

Good scouting helps with late first round picks, no doubt, but most game changers are gone then. The high risk, high reward situation I mentioned refers to the possibility their picks may end up being better players than expected due to the trade not working as well as intended.

There's always the possibility (obviously it's unfortunate but those things happen), Brunson gets a Derrick Rose, and you'll be in trouble in the immediate future which can be solved with good drafting. The definite downfall of a very bad immediate situation in this case (the trade, I mean) is that you don't get to rebuild immediately, nor do you get to rebuild for the whole decade (The knicks still have picks, but only every two years). They do have a few picks the next couple of years from previous trades though, so it may still be safe enough, even if things don't go that well.

 

18 minutes ago, gunnar hendershow said:

The purpose of this trade is because NY doesn't believe they can stop Boston (and they can't). They have to get much better defensive effort on the wing, and shut down the Celtics stars as Miami managed to do in 2023. But by doing this they're going to potentially open themselves up to being weaker in the paint and create a situation where they get eliminated when Ancient Al Horford puts up 25/10 in a game.

As for this part, I understand that getting the 1 ring maybe will justify everything (like the big 3 in Boston and whatnot) but I haven't focused on how this trade will help them right now, which obviously if things go well, it will. n paper the team will be better. I never doubted that. 

The only thing I meant was there are some trades that allow you to get better without risking a possible rebuild. This trade makes it a bit harder if things don't go their way. Just that.

I also wasn't aware, before checking just now, the knicks have some picks accumulated for the 24 and 25 drafts, so they should be ok anyway.

I also wonder, if Mikal Bridges is worth 5 1st round picks, what would be the price in 1st round picks of some of today's stars. Definitely a lot more expensive than in the past.

[Pooker]

David Locke, play-by-play radio guy for the Utah Jazz, has a theory that in order to win a championship, you need a top ten, a top 20, and a top 50 player based on rankings done by The Ringer. He's gone back through like the last 10/15 years championship teams and found that all but one, I think, has had that.

Mikal Bridges was ranked number 50 last year. So, five first round picks for the 50th best player in the league. It's insane, especially if they can't win with him.

The Jazz, historical have neve been a good drafting team. Last year was the best draft we've had in a very long time. I'm hoping that continues this year. I hope we draft a 3 and D player with our first pick, if we can't trade up for Castle. I'm fully expecting us to trade our other two picks, either to the Lakers or Phoenix. I'm not sure who we would draft with a higher pick, but I know that I don't want Zach Edey or another small guard.

[The Buscher]

On the day of the draft the Lakers are -130 favored to take Bronny at #55 but those aren't exactly overwhelming odds, it only implies slightly better than a coin flip that it happens.

I will laugh so hard if a team in the #45-54 range decide to take him.  I'm not so sure it will happen, teams do value their 2nd round picks a lot more under this CBA, and most teams would rather draft a kid they've actually worked out and think can continue in some way next year than taking a kid who has a floor of giving you absolutely nothing if he never comes close to panning out.

But the potential ceiling, apart from maybe Bronny figuring it out in the G-League, is LeGM throwing a fit and forcing the Lakers to trade for him, or simply him coming to Bronny's team for cheap if he really is serious about getting on the court with him.

I'm sure this whole farce will end the way it was expected to and he'll be a Laker by night's end but I'm fully rooting for chaos here.

[Pooker]

I love Bill Simmons suggestion of the Celtics taking Bronny with the 30th pick and holding him hostage.

[Krabby]

If he is there at 55, I am absolutely 100% taking him with the Lakers - clearly the plan is to roll with LBJ again considering the coaching hire and there are worst people in the world to train Bronny on playing guard than JJ Redick.

[Pooker]

2 hours ago, Krabby said:

If he is there at 55, I am absolutely 100% taking him with the Lakers - clearly the plan is to roll with LBJ again considering the coaching hire and there are worst people in the world to train Bronny on playing guard than JJ Redick.

How are you going to feel when they trade pick 17 to the Jazz for the 29th and 32nd pick and draft Bronny with one of those?

[DYSI]

Glad the Nets finally picked a direction and are sticking with it. I've always loved that Kenny Atkinson led D-Lo/LeVert/Dinwiddie squad before we went all-in with Kyrie and KD so this will get us trending back into building an actual team the right way with all these assets we just got today.
 

No way in hell did I think a) Bridges would command that type of return and b) Houston would give us back our first so we can properly tank in peace.

 

All in all it's a good step forward!

[gunnar hendershow]

OG has re-signed with the Knicks.

[Krabby]

1 hour ago, Pooker said:

How are you going to feel when they trade pick 17 to the Jazz for the 29th and 32nd pick and draft Bronny with one of those?

I'll probably be giving a hearty chuckle

[The Buscher]

 

[Pooker]

I cannot believe that Cody Williams fell to the Jazz. Absolute the best case scenario, outside of trading up. I'm thrilled, so far.

[LL!]

Happy with the Heat pick. Big need for us is length and we got that. Now we need a playmaker.