MLB 2024

[The Buscher]

He took the NL lead in WAR in the last week and is on track to have the best season from a Mets position player in history.

Unfortunately, he’s in the same league as Ohtani and he’s probably going 50/50.  There’s just no way he isn’t running away with MVP, it’s comparable to the Miggy triple crown year where the base stats are so absurd that you kinda have to set WAR aside.

He might end up earning a few first place votes for whatever hardline “DH can’t win it if anyone else is remotely close” voters, at least.

[gunnar hendershow]

Judge will probably be unanimous in the AL but I think Ohtani won't precisely because some voters will think he's "just a DH". Lindor will get those first place votes.

[The Buscher]

I do sorta agree with the mindset that a DH ought to be held to a far higher offensive standard to offset the value generated by a guy who plays otherworldly defense along with really great offensive stats.  But Ohtani’s line clears the standard pretty easily, he’s having the best hitting season in the NL since Bonds.  His WAR being what it is for only DH’ing is absurd.

I guess as a Mets fan the annoying thing is they’ve never had an MVP and between Bonds, Pujols, and now Ohtani there’s always a generational talent doing their thing in a year where a Met actually puts up legit MVP-worthy numbers.  It just never lines up.

And really the year Ohtani is strictly DH’ing feels like the last chance anyone would have for a while.  His steals will probably go down next year when he’s back to pitching but if his offense is even 75% of what it is + pitching decently well he’s still a lock.  It’s not a stretch that he’ll win the next 4-5 in a row barring injury.

[Meacon Keaton]

11 hours ago, The Buscher said:

I guess as a Mets fan the annoying thing is they’ve never had an MVP and between Bonds, Pujols, and now Ohtani there’s always a generational talent doing their thing in a year where a Met actually puts up legit MVP-worthy numbers.  It just never lines up.

I read this and was like, "Uh, didn't David Wright have an MVP the year he had like an 8.5 WAR?" and so I looked it up and he finished 4th. Pujols had a 8.7 and finished 9th. 😶

[gunnar hendershow]

Voters couldn't in good conscience give it to Wright after that collapse. Rollins was certainly not deserving for a whole season but if I recall he was basically playing the best baseball of his career that September.

[Meacon Keaton]

Yeah, I forgot '07 was the year of the great collapse.

Voters sometime put too much weight into team finish when voting. The Cardinals won only 78 games with Pujols getting a league leading 8.7 WAR, so just imagine how terrible they would've been without him. 

Also, if I never see Clay Holmes on the mound again, it'll still be too soon. 

[The Buscher]

Holliday probably should've won it in 2007 if they were compelled to give it to a playoff team (which they shouldn't have been) but it does annoy me greatly that had the Mets just managed to win two more games in September, Wright would've been MVP.

Of course, they didn't hold not making the playoffs against Ryan Howard when they gave it to him in 2006.  5.9 WAR vs. an 8.1 WAR for Pujols and a 7.8 for Beltran.  Both of whom were on playoff teams, one that barely made it in and one that ran roughshod over the NL.  Either would've been completely justifiable choices.

But, Howard hit 58 HR with 149 RBI.  This was the tail end of the era where voters didn't really pay much, if any, attention to WAR but the lack of playoffs couldn't be held against him with that kind of production.  But I think to this day there's still a point where even the more advanced stat-minded voters would think WAR has to be thrown out the window if the base stats are just that ridiculous and that's pretty much where Ohtani's headed.

[gunnar hendershow]

The list of players on sub-.500 teams to win MVP is slim and in most cases it's because they were having a historically great season - like Cal in 1991 or A-Rod in 2003.

[The Buscher]

Discussing on a Mets board on what the rating for this season on a scale of 1-10 would be.  Feel like I can't rate something that isn't finished, it's heavily outcome dependent.

Making the playoffs:  This to me gives the season an 8 at minimum with the potential to go higher if they advance.  Expectations were kinda low entering the year, people viewing it as a retool/reset year.  Making it would feel like an accomplishment especially given where they were in May which is why I'd go all the way to 8 instead of a 6 or 7.

Missing the playoffs:  I mean I can't really go higher than 5.  Regardless of the expectations for the team entering the year, they still have the highest payroll in baseball, unlimited financial resources, and a wunderkind GM.  Playoffs should be expected every year.

Metsing it up:  Just for specific "lolMets" outcomes.  Like having a lead going into the final weekend and blowing it.  Or getting swept by Atlanta and letting it torpedo them, etc.  If that happens it'll be all anyone remembers from the year and so it'd be a 0.

[Your Mom]

1 hour ago, Meacon Keaton said:

I read this and was like, "Uh, didn't David Wright have an MVP the year he had like an 8.5 WAR?" and so I looked it up and he finished 4th. Pujols had a 8.7 and finished 9th. 😶

This was like a weird little Mandela Effect for me because I was sure Wright won it too!

[Meacon Keaton]

I think we may just be getting old.

[Your Mom]

So I missed this because my dad and presumably other family members were too superstitious to talk about it as it was happening!  

[gunnar hendershow]

That's how I almost missed the John Means no-hitter.

[Your Mom]

Someone vaguely hinted at it. I saw "Oh Shota sure is throwing a good one!" And I was like "Meh he does that a lot and Dynamite is on!"