Recap of the last two stages:
Yesterday's stage was the first to define who wasn't going to challenge for the highest places at all while keeping all the favourites with the same time. In the end it threw all but 30 something away. No surprises there. It's all going as i predicted so far. Armstrong will have a HARD time trying to win it again and i was right in feeling suspicious the fact that they brought Savoldelli and Popovych to the tour. Armstrong will really need all the help he can get, because noone in Discovery seems to be in good form. Both Azevedo (which is the number 2 in # and in reality too) and Popovych came in the second group, and savoldelli only managed to get in the third group (obviously with a form peek on the Giro he couldn't achieve another one so soon) and noone else managed to get in the favourites group. Hincapie is the one overachieving in that team, but as soon as the highclimbs start he will disappear completely. Popovych and Azevedo (while not in great form) will be the ones in which Armstrong can rely the most with Rubiera being helpful in the beggining of the climbs. The team will miss Floyd Llandis who is in good form this year.
Today's stage was as expected a stage for mountain riders who don't have a shot at the general classification to escape and try getting the win. In the end Rasmussen did it, with Voigt and Moreau winning precious time as well. I was surprised to see Voigt there, but not surprised at all to see the other 2.
Everyone that matters arrived at 6:04
Voigt won precious time and got the yellow jersey but he won't keep it for long. The time he has gained to the other "good-place" candidates though, will keep him on the top places for a while. Rasmussen will possibly be trying to get a top-10 spot although if he chokes in one important stage he will probably start riding more in contention in hopes of winning another mountain stage later on. He already did the double in the Vuelta, why not here?
Moreau will be the french hope once more and will try really hard. Expect him to be leading the group where he's at in the mountain climbs trying to lose the least time possible, only to fail miserably. He is also a candidate to the top 10 but with so many candidates this year (the most talent loaded tour of the past 5 years) it will be hard to achieve.
Vinokourov is one of the favourites to win the tour but he has one problem that others don't have. He is inconsistent in GT's due to the fact that he is mold for week-long classics. His strength in accelerations both in flat and mountain stages may prove important to win a few seconds or a minute in some stages but my bet is he will have a hard time in one of the mountain stages and it won't matter how much (little) time he wins in the rest of them. Still an obvious choice for top 10 and good possibility for top 5 though.
Julich is having a good race but will drop out of the top 10 when the High Climbs start. Will probably gain back some time in both TT's but not enough to get in there again.
Basso and Ullrich are another 2 candidates and very similar in a way that neither tries anything else than going with the best placed candidate in every stage whoever he is. This is a good strategy to reach a top 5 place, and they are the only 2 who may make it work. However, to win the race with this strategy they need one of the candidates to have troubles in a couple stages. Last year Armstrong had a hard time in One. Basso came close. Ullrich has a better chance because he'll gain time in the TT over pretty much everyone in contention depending on the form he is. Ullrich failed last year because he choked in a stage losing much time and ending up behind his teammate Kloden.
Sastre is an eternal top 10 fighter. He will always be between 6th and 14th trying to keep in the top 10. This year will be harder, but i expect him to never arrive after the second group of riders in the mountain stages.
Kloden is another candidate but not in the same vein as Ullrich or Vinokourov. He's complete enough to not lose time in any kind of stages but he needs to be on top form like last season to contend for something.
Botero is a great rider and possibly the most inconsistent of them all. He's able to win stages both in Time Trials and in Mountain Stages but he's also able to choke with ease. He has had a couple great Tours but last two years were a disappointment. He's still getting into the favourites group so at least he knows he's probably part of the 50 that won't lose half an hour every stage when the tough stages begin.
Leipheimer has had a top 10 placing before and may aswell try for another, but i doubt he'll be able to do. he is currently in the same situation as Botero though.
Karpets was very good last year earning the young riders jersey is something he can still achieve (for the last time this year) and he's good enough to challenge for top 10 as well.
Azevedo ended in the 5th place in the Tour last year after reaching 6th a couple years back. He doesn't seem to be to strong this year but i can't see him do any worse then 20th (even in a bad tour).
Popovych is more of a Giro rider in which he usually does well. He's a complete rider, but i don't expect him to be challenging for anything on the tour right away. Maybe in a couple years.
The Liberty Seguros pairing. Who knows how they'll do? Heras was arguably the best climber of the past years but has troubles on TTs, and Beloki is a complete rider who has finished 3rd in the Tour and dropped out through a fall in a year he was seriously challenging Armstrong for it. He hasn't done anything remarkable since, but at least he's still on the 50 guys list.
Mancebo has lost 5 minutes already but that doesn't mean shit. He's always one of the main contenders for the top 10 in any GT he's on, and he has even managed to do so in all 3 in the same year. I'm expecting to see Mancebo in the top 10 right after the first set of mountain stages.
Valverde is another great rider although more suited to the Vuelta. He can climb as well as the majority and has a great acceleration that may allow him to get a lot of bonus seconds. He's like a poor man's Vinokourov but a lot less inconsistent.
And then there are some italian climbers like Garzelli or Piepoli, Spanish like Sevilla and Pereiro, and the whole Euskadi team that will raise upon the general classification during the mountain stages only to lose some minutes again in the Time Trials.
So here it is. I haven't posted anything like this before because i honestly didn't care about anything that happened until yesterday's stage.
The tour is really beggining tomorrow for me and i'm looking forward to it.
