In a line that will no doubt be trotted out plenty nearer the contest, the UK actually won from 1st with Brotherhood of Man. Of course, Brotherhood of Man won in an 18 song contest and with only the juries, and Engelbert has 25 songs after him and televoting to cope with. Still, top 10 isn't outside of his reach.
Looking at the betting, it's all pretty much one way traffic:
Best odds on Sweden are 12/5, though nobody is offering odds on yet, which they were getting close to doing on Alexander Rybak.
Russia are next on 6/1, but it's very much Brits thinking "LOL, novelty act at Eurovision, of course it'll win!" and not realising that...no, it will not.
Denmark and Serbia you can get for 14/1 and 16/1. Denmark are on outside shot of winning, I think. Serbia will do well but I doubt it'll win, it's Zeljko's worst song out of the four he's had in the contest.
Three of the big five are at 20/1(also 20/1), the UK, Spain and Italy. Spain have a real shot at winning, Italy have been hindered by the draw and the UK would be a wasted bet.
Outside shots would be Slovenia (66/1), Iceland (28-1) and Norway (33-1).
Logic dictates that it's Loreen's to lose, really. The only songs I can really see giving her a challenge would be Denmark, Spain and Iceland and for Denmark & Iceland, that'll be very draw dependant.