I'd say if anything, Black Swan is going to be the one that's the award show darling. They loved it in Venice and the Globes were very kind to The Wrestler, if I recall, so Aronofsky has history on his side. The Kids Are All Right *has* to win, although I think I'd prefer Moore to win it over Benning. Somehow, unfortunately, I could see Hathaway managing to win the award too which would be a travesty, and I love Anne Hathaway.
I'd also reckon that Glee might just sneak the best Comedy/Musical based on Season One: even though a portion of Season Two has been fairly bleh, would I be right in saying that they're technically voting on the second half of Season One? Jane Lynch should win it, especially since Sofia Vergara is pretty much on the Glee train herself now thanks to Funny or Die. I'm just hoping that they give the win to Chris Colfer, to be honest, but Cameron is amazing so it'd hurt not to see him win.