I'll probably put my thoughts on it in this post and keep editing it unless something major comes up:
Ep.1 - Yeah, Sonia was obviously going. They were winning that challenge until she messed up, ultimately, and she even admitted that she was too weak to really go on. Would have changed everything though if Sue had voted with the younger girls to get rid of Rudy knowing what happens...but, yeah, I already like Rudy/Richard/Sue and barely anyone off the other tribe has made an impact other than the old guy who's a bit too cranky.
Eps. 2-4 - No surpise with anyone who went, to be honest. B.B. was an obvious one and "wanted" to go, Stacey was on the wrong side of the friends of Rudy group and Ramona sucked from day one. Pretty sure that jesus guy (Dirk?) and Gervase are going to be out soon enough too. To pick up on what GoGo said, Sean apparently is playing the role of Hurley with his bowling alley/absolutely useless in most respects game. Sue/Kelly/Rudy/Richard are obviously doing very well in comparison with everyone. Maybe it's because I know what happens, but the edit is clearly showing them to be superior to Pagong and...yeah >_<